2026 3rd Quarter Market Update

Monmouth County Market Update
Third Quarter 2026

Happy fall, neighbors!

The 3rd quarter numbers are in, and they tell an interesting story.

By most measures, Q3 remained a strong real estate market across the 13 Monmouth County communities* I track. More homes sold than during the same period last year, median prices were higher, homes sold faster, and sellers continued to receive approximately their asking price or better.

But, as the quarter came to a close, I started to see some signs of change. I wouldn't call it a weak market. I think we're entering a more selective and less uniform market, where location, condition and asking price are beginning to matter more.

Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2026

Across the 13 towns, 576 homes closed during Q3 2026 compared with 510 during Q3 2025, an increase of approximately 13%.

The median sale price increased from $799,450 to $860,000, up about 8%.

Homes also sold faster. Median days on market declined from 18 days to 15 days, while the median sale-to-list ratio increased from approximately 100% to 101%.

So, if we look strictly at the 3rd quarter closed sales, this was not a soft market.

How the Towns Compared

There are some big changes in those numbers, but a handful of sales can move the median significantly from one quarter to another so I take these numbers with a grain of salt.

Rumson and Fair Haven are good examples. The median price increased substantially in both towns, but that doesn't mean every home appreciated by that amount. It tells us that the mix of properties that sold was different. I personally know this to be true, since I closed on a record Fair Haven sale of $9,400,000 in September which is certainly skewing these numbers.

The same applies in the opposite direction. Median prices were lower in Asbury Park, Highlands, Little Silver, Long Branch and Oceanport. That doesn't necessarily mean home values declined by those percentages.

What I find more meaningful is the combination of sales activity, market time and price.

Middletown had 260 closings compared with 206 last year. Little Silver more than doubled from 11 to 24. Atlantic Highlands increased from 12 to 18, and Shrewsbury went from 6 to 11. At the same time, sales declined in Asbury Park, Long Branch and Sea Bright.

That's why I don't think there's one headline that accurately describes every part of this market anymore.

So Where Am I Seeing a Shift?

It's showing up more clearly in what happened at the end of the quarter than in Q3's closed sales. That's important because closed sales are backward-looking. A home that closed in July may have gone under contract months earlier.

As we moved through September, I started to see buyers becoming more selective. Some homes were taking longer to find a buyer, inventory was beginning to build in certain areas, and the difference between the homes buyers were willing to move quickly on, and those they weren't became much more noticeable.

I don't think every town is softening equally. Some remain extremely competitive.

What I do think is changing is the assumption that almost anything will sell quickly simply because inventory is low.

Not All Houses Are Experiencing the Same Market

This may be the biggest change I'm seeing firsthand.

Turn-key, updated homes are behaving very differently from homes that need work.

A beautifully presented home in a desirable location that's priced correctly can still sell almost immediately and may attract multiple buyers.

A home that needs a new kitchen, bathrooms, systems or substantial cosmetic work is a different story.

Buyers are doing the math much more carefully. A $1.5M house that needs $300,000 worth of work can feel very different from a $1.8M house that's already done.

That doesn't mean every seller should renovate before listing. It does mean the condition of the house and the cost of the work a buyer will be taking on need to be reflected in the price.

Correct pricing, not aspirational pricing, matters more as buyers become more selective.

Why Might Things Be Changing?

There probably isn't one reason.

Higher borrowing costs affect purchasing power, particularly at our price points. Buyers also must consider the increased costs associated with renovating, maintaining, insuring and owning a home.

There's also economic and political uncertainty heading into the midterm elections. I wouldn't attribute a change in our local housing market directly to an election, but uncertainty can cause some people to wait before making a major financial decision.

At the same time, many homeowners remain reluctant to sell because they're holding mortgages with rates well below today's levels. That continues to limit the number of homes coming onto the market.

All of these factors can exist at the same time, which is part of what makes this market difficult to describe with one statistic.

Is This a Blip or a Trend?

That's what I'm watching most closely. The full 3rd quarter numbers tell us that demand remained strong. More homes sold, the overall median price was higher, homes sold faster and sellers continued to receive strong prices.

What I'm seeing as we enter the 4th quarter suggests the market may be starting to recalibrate.

One month isn't enough to call it a trend. I want to see what happens with inventory, contracts and days on market through the fall before drawing a larger conclusion.

For now, I would describe the market this way:

Still strong. Still relatively low on inventory. But increasingly selective, more property-specific and beginning to show signs of better balance.

For sellers, that means you can't assume that what worked 6 months ago will work today. Condition, presentation and pricing matter.

For buyers, it may mean there are opportunities that simply weren't there when almost every desirable house immediately had multiple offers.

And for both sides, broad statistics only go so far. Two houses in the same town, sometimes even on the same street, can experience completely different markets depending on their condition, location and price.

After 27 years selling real estate in this market, I've learned that the market usually starts changing before the headlines catch up with it. That's what I'm watching now.

*Towns of Rumson, Fair Haven, Little Silver, Shrewsbury, Red Bank, Middletown, Highlands, Atlantic Highlands, Sea Bright, Monmouth Beach, Oceanport, Long Branch, Asbury Park.