I Looked at 6,650 Home Sales. Here Is the Best Month to List Your House.
Every seller I sit down with asks me some version of the same question. When should we go on the market?
For years I answered it the way most agents do, from experience and instinct. Spring is busy. The holidays are slow. That is true as far as it goes, but it is not an answer you can price a decision on. So this month I did something different. I pulled every residential sale in Rumson, Fair Haven, Little Silver, Red Bank and Middletown going back to January 2021. That is 6,650 homes. Then I sorted them by the month they went on the market and looked at what happened to them.
The answer surprised me a little, and I have been doing this for 27 years.
Same house, different month.
Of the homes that came on the market in April, 68% sold for more than their asking price. Of the homes that came on in October, 43% did.
Same towns. Same kinds of houses. The only thing that changed was the month the sign went in the yard, and it moved the odds by 25 points.
Days on Market follows the same pattern. A home listed in March or April went under contract in about 11 days. A home listed in October took 18. A home listed in December took 21.
Listing in the spring does not just feel better. It changes how many buyers compete for your house, and competition is the whole game when you are selling.
The usual explanation is that more buyers shop in spring. That is true, but it is only half of it.
Inventory is what actually drives this. In New Jersey, the number of homes for sale stays near its summer peak all the way through October. It does not taper the way people assume. Then it drops sharply in November and December, down about 27% from the October level.
So an October seller is in the hardest spot. They are competing against nearly as many other houses as a June seller, but the buyer pool has thinned out. More supply, fewer buyers, and you can see the result in the numbers above.
If your timing is not flexible
Most people are not selling because of a calendar. They are selling because of a job, a school, a marriage, a parent who needs care, or a house that stopped fitting. If that is you, here is what the rest of this year actually looks like.
Rates are roughly where they were a year ago. The 30 year fixed sat at 6.55% in mid July, just under last summer, and the Federal Reserve's June projections point toward an increase rather than a cut. Waiting for rates has not been rewarded in twelve months.
The market here is tight, and it got tighter. Across Monmouth County there are fewer homes for sale than a year ago, down about 4%, with 2.7 months of supply. Statewide that number went the other way. Plenty of new listings are coming on, but buyers are absorbing them about as fast as they arrive, so nothing is piling up.
And competition for a well priced house is as strong as I have seen it. Across those five towns, 65% of the homes that sold this year went for more than asking. That is the highest share in the six years I pulled. Not 2021, not 2022. This year.
So a fall listing is not a bad listing. It is a listing with less margin for error.
What I would actually do
If your timing is flexible, aim to be on the market in late March or April, and use the fall and winter to get the house ready. The sellers who win in spring are the ones who prepared in December.
If your timing is not flexible, price it correctly from the first day. In a market where the typical home is selling about 3% over asking, testing a high number for a few weeks is not a free experiment. It is the difference between the 68% group and the 43% group, and once a listing goes stale the season stops mattering at all.
One exception the data showed that's worth noting. In Sea Bright and Monmouth Beach this seasonal pattern is much weaker.
And whatever you are weighing, it's smart to find out from an expert what's happening in your neighborhood. I am always happy to be that person.
I hope you enjoy the rest of your Summer!
Kelly
All figures come from my own MLS analysis of 6,650 closed residential sales in Rumson, Fair Haven, Little Silver, Red Bank and Middletown, January 2021 through July 2026. Percentage of asking price is measured against the asking price at the time of sale. Rate figures from Freddie Mac, week ending July 16, 2026. County and statewide inventory, months supply and seasonality from the New Jersey Realtors Local Market Update and Monthly Indicators, June 2026.
